Summary
In the last 12 or 15 years I cannot recall a telecom or technology company that has voluntarily left China. What company in its right mind would voluntarily leave China?
Analysis
Google should be concerned about hackers from China hacking into its network servers. There are legitimate security concerns. Google should be concerned about censorship. However, I cannot recall a time when any of that stopped a publicly traded company like Google from doing business in a market as large as China. Like it or not, companies find a way to do business.
People in the United States still ask the question: Is China’s market that large? The answer is yes by about a factor of 4 when compared to the United States; and I am referring to population size and not financial market size (I won’t go there)
Google is between a rock and a hard place. One the one hand it has a fiscal responsibility to its shareholders and needs to do everything it can to increase the company’s revenue base. On the other hand it has a fiscal responsibility to its shareholders and needs to do everything it can to protect the company’s proprietary technology and customer information. There is a third aspect and that is national security. Google is an American company – enough said about this.
Google cannot walk away from China. Google cannot let the Chinese walk all over it – too much. This is what you call a rock and a hard place. You want to stand your ground and not show weakness and yet you cannot tick off the one place on Earth you need to be or else your shareholders will have your head. Yes, this is what you call a rock and a hard place.
As for the impact on Google, if you look at it short term there is no impact. It is the long term impact that investors need to be concerned with
Are there legitimate concerns about censorship? Yes. However, what will drive the final decision is money. As horrible, as this may sound it will be about business. Think beyond, Google. It is all about business.
Google will work it out; just give the company time. As I write this, Google China may not be censoring Google China. A resolution will be reached where both parties will save face.
