随着我们获得了一些云计算的经验，我们希望看到中央信托系统、惊人的大型数据库以及更多的东西。

这周在加利福尼亚圣克拉拉举办的云计算大会上，有人请求我谈谈关于云计算的未来。这里我为不在场的人总结了五大趋势。

第一、专业术语“云计算”陷入了计算的圈套。虽然过去的十年我都在为云计算奋斗，但我并不确定我是否喜欢这个术语。其实，概念的产生要早于这个名词并且比术语更经久。“云计算”某些情况下只会成为“计算”，但也会作为实现计算的方法存在。

第二、我们已经开始注重“合适”与“功能”，而不是夸大的宣传。然而，我仍然会看到许多云计划与企业运作非常不匹配，就像方形的钉子钉入了圆形的洞一样。罪魁祸首就是夸大的宣传，它们驱使企业移入云计算，但是企业没有认真考虑过自己的企业是否真正适合云计算。因此导致了企业价值降低或是项目失败。我们会在几年内找到合适的云计算。我们只需从失败中吸取教训，更好的利用云。

第三、安全性移入了“中央托管”。这意味着我们要学会在企业和云中管理身份。我们要在互联网中创建能验证身份的领域，就像本地车管所验证驾照一样。这里会有许多要处理的云来满足单独登入的需要，因此我们需要保证身份的安全性。

第四、集中数据会成为一个主要的战略优势。我们将会变得善于创建大型数据库，使有价值的信息聚集，人们可以通过公共的API使用这些信息，如：几十年来的股票市场行为，或是能提供更好病人护理的临床数据。这些数据库会用到像Hadoop这样的大数据技术，并且会达到前所未闻的规模。

第五、移动设备将会变得越来越强大、越来越浓缩。它无需用脑。随着移动计算的增加以及对支持移动应用程序的云的依赖，移动设备将有更多的功能，但是数据将存在云中。苹果的iCloud就是其中之一。

That's the top five. Give them at least three years to play out.

以上就是云计算的五大趋势。请给予至少三年的时间来使其成真。

As we gain experience with the cloud, expect to see centralized trust systems, amazingly large databases, and more.

I was asked to talk about the future of cloud computing at Cloud Exop, taking place this week in Santa Clara, Calif. For those of you not at the show, I identified five key trends to anticipate.

First, the buzzwords "cloud computing" are enmeshed in computing. I'm not sure I ever liked the term, though I've built my career around it for the last 10 years. The concept predated the rise of the phrase, and the concept will outlive the buzzwords. "Cloud computing" will become just "computing" at some point, but it will still be around as an approach to computing.

Second, we're beginning to focus on fit and function, and not the hype. However, I still see many square cloud pegs going into round enterprise holes. Why? The hype drives the movement to cloud computing, but there is little thought as to the actual fit of the technology. Thus, there is diminished business value and even a failed project or two. We'll find the right fit for this stuff in a few years. We just need to learn from our failures and become better at using clouds.

Third, security will move to "centralized trust." This means we'll learn to manage identities within enterprises -- and within clouds. From there we'll create places on the Internet where we'll be able to validate identities, like the DMV validates your license. There will be so many clouds that we'll have to deal with the need for a single sign-on, and identity-based security will become a requirement.

Fourth, centralized data will become a key strategic advantage. We'll get good at creating huge databases in the sky that aggregate valuable information that anybody can use through a publicly accessible API, such as stock market behavior over decades or clinical outcome data to provide better patient care. These databases will use big data technology such as Hadoop, and they will reach sizes once unheard of.

Fifth, mobile devices will become more powerful and thinner. That's a no-brainer. With the continued rise of mobile computing and the reliance on clouds to support mobile applications, mobile devices will have more capabilities, but the data will live in the cloud. Apple's iCloud is just one example.